Black Market Booms, Youth Vaping Rises, Smoking Increases
Published: May 2026
When the Netherlands banned flavored vapor products in 2024, policymakers claimed the move was necessary to prevent a so-called “youth gateway effect.”
Instead, the exact opposite appears to have happened.
According to new data highlighted by Prohibition Does Not Work (PDNW), the Dutch flavor ban has fueled illicit sales, increased youth vaping, and may even be pushing people back toward smoking combustible cigarettes.
Rather than eliminating demand, the policy simply pushed consumers away from regulated products and into underground markets.
“The Dutch experience is a textbook example of policy backfiring.”
— Tim Andrews, Founder of Prohibition Does Not Work
Youth Vaping Didn’t Disappear — It Doubled
One of the primary justifications for banning flavored vapor products was reducing youth use.
But the reported numbers show youth vaping in the Netherlands rising from:
3.7% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2024
That’s more than double in just a year after the ban was implemented.
This directly challenges the assumption that prohibition automatically reduces access.
If anything, it suggests the opposite:
When legal, regulated products disappear, unregulated sellers step in to fill the demand.
The Black Market Took Over
The report paints a picture that should sound familiar to anyone who has watched prohibition fail elsewhere.
Adult consumers didn’t suddenly stop wanting flavored products.
They simply changed where they got them.
According to the report:
27% reported buying products abroad
31% used illicit online sellers
33% still found flavored products through local shops despite the ban
Meanwhile, inspections found:
42% of retailers were non-compliant8 out of 10 consumers said flavored vapes were still easy to obtain
That’s the reality prohibition repeatedly creates:
Less oversight
Less quality control
More illegal distribution
Smoking Appears To Be Increasing Again
Perhaps the most alarming part of the report is the indication that some former vapers are returning to cigarettes.
According to the findings:
- Cigarette consumption rose by roughly 60 million cigarettes in 2024
- 27% of former vapers reported smoking more or initiating smoking after the flavor ban
This is the exact outcome harm reduction advocates have warned about for years.
When safer alternatives become harder to access, less appealing, or criminalized, some adults return to smoking.
Public health policy should be focused on reducing smoking-related disease — not protecting cigarettes from competition.
Brussels Is Ignoring The Evidence
Despite these early warning signs, policymakers in Brussels are reportedly treating the Dutch ban as a “positive example” while evaluating future EU vaping regulations.
That’s deeply concerning.
Instead of learning from the unintended consequences now unfolding in the Netherlands, parts of the EU Commission appear to be doubling down on a precautionary prohibitionist approach.
The problem is that this approach often ignores real-world consumer behavior.
Demand does not disappear because regulators wish it away.
Consumers adapt.
Markets adapt.
And black markets thrive.
“When legal access is restricted but demand remains, illicit trade expands to fill the gap.”
— Michael Ellis, Former Assistant Director at INTERPOL
According to Ellis, this creates:
Lower quality products
Reduced consumer protections
Loss of tax revenue
Increased opportunities for organized crime
None of which sounds remotely like good public health policy.
Harm Reduction Requires Reality, Not Ideology
Vaping is not risk-free.
But overwhelming evidence continues to show it is dramatically lower risk than combustible smoking.
That distinction matters.
Policies built around fear, optics, or ideological opposition to nicotine often fail because they ignore why adults switch in the first place:
Flavors help adults move away from cigarettes
Accessibility matters
Consumer preference matters
Ignoring those realities doesn’t eliminate demand.
It just pushes it underground.
And the Netherlands may now be providing Europe with a real-world example of exactly how badly that can backfire.
Source reporting inspired by coverage from Brussels Times and findings promoted by Prohibition Does Not Work (PDNW) Some of this was written by humans, and some of it was robots.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/2076002/dutch-vape-flavour-ban-backfires-new-report-shows-rise-in-youth-use-illicit-trade-and-smoking